This is the fifth year that I have a formula
to calculate each team's value, using last year's stats as a
starting point. The calculation is based on who is in the starting
and second team lineups, plus this year I've taken into account
projected Year End Bonus Points based on last year's numbers.
Finally, I've projected which 6 players have the best chance
of improving (and fading) from last year, and I give my reasons
for each player. Each team's projected final total is listed
below next to the team's ranking. View
our grid and find out how I did it. Note: I'm using the
teams as drafted, even though there have been some add/drops
already. Also, I don't take into account injuries, except for
Arenas and Ginobili, who should miss significant time and therefore
are not calculated to be in the lineups.
This year we are down to 8 teams in the league, which means
it's going to be hard to play all of your good players. So you
would think that everyone would be sure to draft at least a
good starting five and quality backups at every position. But
the draft teaches cruel lessons. Here's what looks obvious with
the season about to get underway:
The Battle for Last
This is always a hotly contested spot. There are two teams that
we think are especially worthy this year:
8: Pat — Projected Total Score: 24,883 Don't
get me wrong, I'm a big Elton Brand fan. He carried the Clippers
on his back a few years ago into the playoffs. But this will
be his first full year after blowing out his Achilles, so he's
got to be a question mark. And if he's good, then Iguodala's
numbers should go down. Wade is injury prone. And Bynum is coming
off an injury too. Lots of potential trouble here.
7: Jason — Projected Total Score: 25,542 This
is a Tale of Two O'Neals. Both are fading fast. Baron Davis
is one bad landing from twisting that knee. And Kobe can't have
the same kind of year he had last year — he just can't!
On the plus side, Durant should continue to improve. At least
Jason stayed away from all those Duke guys. There are two things
you can say about Duke guys: They're always overrated, and they
always disappoint.
Middle
of the Pack
These teams are good, but are lacking in some way which will
probably keep them just out of the money (which is the top 3
this year):
6: Sean & John — Projected Total
Score: 26,661 This
is potentially a great team, with Dwight Howard and Melo as
the anchors. But McGrady is another injury-prone guy, Artest
is a ticking time bomb, and Felton and/or G Wallace are gonna
suffer in Larry Brown's system of slow ball. Everything will
have to break just right for this team to be in contention.
And just like the Atlanta Hawks, nobody is quite sure who's
running this team! Things could get ugly here.
5: Paul — Projected Total Score: 27,122 Camby
has had a couple of unexpectedly great (and injury free) years
in Denver. But he's now in Clipperland, and I expect things
to go south for him on that forsaken franchise. On the plus
side, Josh Smith is amazing. But Stephen Jackson and Jamaal
Tinsley are up and down. Mix in fading stars VC and RJ, and
rookie team Paul has a good, solid, middle of the road team.
4: Tom — Projected Total Score: 27,686 This
is a sneaky good team, and Tom probably had his best draft in
five years. Chris Paul is the real deal. Nowitzki still has
a number of productive years left, and Pierce is a world beater.
To top it off, Garnett didn't even get picked in the first round!
The only thing holding this team out of the money are potentially
low bonus points, since Dirk, KG, and The Truth are "spread
it around" kind of guys. Great for their NBA teams. For
their fantasy teams — not so much.
In the
Money
This space is usually reserved for the veteran teams that know
how to draft, but more importantly, know when to cut their losses
(as soon as possible) when they see the ugly results. Tom will
even cut his losses before he sees the results! I'm not sure
how the team of Anthony & Mike got in here, but the numbers
don't lie! Their team will battle it out with two grizzled veterans
for the top 3 spots:
3: Anthony & Mike — Projected Total
Score: 27,729 Lebron
was I think the consensus number one pick in the league. The
guy is a winner, and more importantly for fantasy teams, he
fills up the stat sheet. I expect Roy to benefit with Oden finally
in the middle out in Portland. Deron Williams is still on the
rise. And Marion should benefit from a full training camp with
D-Wade (and Riles out of the locker room).
2: Jim — Projected Total Score: 28,299 This
team is scary good. Stoudemire, Duncan, Jamison, and Nash are
all certain All-Stars. Billups and Lewis are still solid. In
fact, without throwing in the Year End Bonus Points, it would
have been the top rated team. But in this league, bonus points
count. And the team that will overwhelm the league in bonus
points is . . .
1: Martin — Projected Total Score: 28,337 That's
right, I predict I will win this thing! This marks the 20th
year in a row that I have made this prediction, and I've been
right four times. Count me as one person that doesn't believe
in "change". I like things to stay the same —
with me on top! I know I don't have one of the "anointed"
superstars. That's okay, I have grit and bonus points galore!
Guys like Boozer, Turkoglu, and Okafor are only gonna get better.
If Yao can stay healthy, he's good for four bonus point categories
(the same number as Iverson). And Allen and Kidd are still productive
guards. The lists just goes on. It won't be a runaway, since
the bonus points only get tallied up at the end. I just gotta
stay close. Then I put the hammer down in April.
Don't
get me wrong, I'm a big Elton Brand fan. He carried the Clippers
on his back a few years ago into the playoffs. But this will
be his first full year after blowing out his Achilles, so he's
got to be a question mark. And if he's good, then Iguodala's
numbers should go down. Wade is injury prone. And Bynum is coming
off an injury too. Lots of potential trouble here.
This
is a Tale of Two O'Neals. Both are fading fast. Baron Davis
is one bad landing from twisting that knee. And Kobe can't have
the same kind of year he had last year — he just can't!
On the plus side, Durant should continue to improve. At least
Jason stayed away from all those Duke guys. There are two things
you can say about Duke guys: They're always overrated, and they
always disappoint.
This
is potentially a great team, with Dwight Howard and Melo as
the anchors. But McGrady is another injury-prone guy, Artest
is a ticking time bomb, and Felton and/or G Wallace are gonna
suffer in Larry Brown's system of slow ball. Everything will
have to break just right for this team to be in contention.
And just like the Atlanta Hawks, nobody is quite sure who's
running this team! Things could get ugly here.
Camby
has had a couple of unexpectedly great (and injury free) years
in Denver. But he's now in Clipperland, and I expect things
to go south for him on that forsaken franchise. On the plus
side, Josh Smith is amazing. But Stephen Jackson and Jamaal
Tinsley are up and down. Mix in fading stars VC and RJ, and
rookie team Paul has a good, solid, middle of the road team.
This
is a sneaky good team, and Tom probably had his best draft in
five years. Chris Paul is the real deal. Nowitzki still has
a number of productive years left, and Pierce is a world beater.
To top it off, Garnett didn't even get picked in the first round!
The only thing holding this team out of the money are potentially
low bonus points, since Dirk, KG, and The Truth are "spread
it around" kind of guys. Great for their NBA teams. For
their fantasy teams — not so much.
Lebron
was I think the consensus number one pick in the league. The
guy is a winner, and more importantly for fantasy teams, he
fills up the stat sheet. I expect Roy to benefit with Oden finally
in the middle out in Portland. Deron Williams is still on the
rise. And Marion should benefit from a full training camp with
D-Wade (and Riles out of the locker room).
This
team is scary good. Stoudemire, Duncan, Jamison, and Nash are
all certain All-Stars. Billups and Lewis are still solid. In
fact, without throwing in the Year End Bonus Points, it would
have been the top rated team. But in this league, bonus points
count. And the team that will overwhelm the league in bonus
points is . . .
That's
right, I predict I will win this thing! This marks the 20th
year in a row that I have made this prediction, and I've been
right four times. Count me as one person that doesn't believe
in "change". I like things to stay the same —
with me on top! I know I don't have one of the "anointed"
superstars. That's okay, I have grit and bonus points galore!
Guys like Boozer, Turkoglu, and Okafor are only gonna get better.
If Yao can stay healthy, he's good for four bonus point categories
(the same number as Iverson). And Allen and Kidd are still productive
guards. The lists just goes on. It won't be a runaway, since
the bonus points only get tallied up at the end. I just gotta
stay close. Then I put the hammer down in April.