Inside the Paint

Predictions for the 2007 Playoffs

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It was a very unpredictable year, and we ended up with our head barely above water, at 8-7. Wait til next year!

Finally, it's time for the Finals. It's a dreadful end to a dreadful playoff season. At least we have a rooting interest in Cleveland, with the next annointed one, Lebron James, plus one of my favorite players, Eric Snow. The Finals would have been unwatchable if the thuggish Pistons (and the poster boy for millioinaire crybabies, Chris Webber) had matched up with the thuggish Spurs. This style of play, which is officiated against all year long, gets a pass in the playoffs, to the consternation of true NBA fans everywhere. Stern has got to go.

Anyway, despite the fact I'd like the Cavs to win, this isn't their time yet. Lebron really doesn't have an All-Star sidekick, and he can't carry the Cavs by himself against the stifling Spurs' defense, which will play smarter than Detroit. So I'll say it's —
Spurs in 5. Easier than expected!

Man, this is an ugly playoff year. I went 2-2 last round, so I'm at 6-6 overall. Before we get to the Conference Finals, I have a few words about the second round.

First, Vince Carter is done. Cooked, shot, over the hill. He is the big brother of Allen Iverson. It's all dribble, dribble, dribble, and then throw up a ridiculous shot and hope to get fouled. He went 4-11 in Game 6. Not exactly scintillating basketball. VC is up for a new contract this summer. We know Rod Thorn will do the right thing. Unload this load.

In the West, we thoroughly enjoyed the Jazz-Warriors series. Very entertaining. But the Suns-Spurs was the biggest rip-off in years. The NBA, in its "wisdom", decided to suspend Stoudemire and Diaw for leaving the bench during the Horry/Nash "incident". This obviously handed the series to the Spurs, despite the Suns' valiant effort in Game 5. Everyone says this rule is "black and white". But the rule clearly is subject to interpretation, in two ways. Let's look at the actual rule. The rule states "During an ALTERCATION, all players not participating in the game must remain in the immediate VICINITY of their bench." (emphasis added). Was the Horry foul the altercation? No! Stoudemire and Diaw reacted to the foul, not the ensuing pushing and shoving by Bell, etc. (that was the altercation). This is EXACTLY what Duncan did earlier in the game: he got off his bench and reacted to the hard foul on his teammate. And what exactly is "vicinity"? The play occurred very close to the Suns' bench. If Nash had been shoved INTO the Suns' bench, could the players move away, or would that also be leaving the bench?

Compare this to the Baron Davis elbow to Derek Fisher's temple near the end of their Game 4. The rules pertaining to that incident are "A player must be ejected for an elbow foul which makes contact above shoulder level. Even if a punch or an elbow goes undetected by the officials during the game, but is detected during a review of a videotape, that player will be penalized." And "Whether or not said player is ejected, a fine not exceeding $35,000 and/or suspension may be imposed upon such player by the Commissioner at his sole discretion." Why was Baron Davis not suspended for his flagrant physical contact, while Stoudemire and Diaw were suspended for standing up and taking a few steps, and yet never actually reaching the altercation? The inconsistency is maddening.

People wonder why the NBA ratings are down, year after year. Maybe real basketball fans are tired of the thuggery of the "Bad Boy" Pistons, then the 90s Knicks and Heat, and now the Spurs, and how the league lets them get away with it year after year. The NBA must stand for No Brains + Arrogance.

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Conference Finals
East
Pistons (1) vs. Cavaliers (2): I guess this is the series everyone should have expected, with the 1 seed up against the 2 seed. The Pistons seem much more determined than last year. We'll give the Cavs one game because they have a league annointed "star" Lebron James, and another game because the Pistons tend to let up when they're ahead in a series. Wake me when it's over.
Pistons in 6. I'm actually glad Cleveland won!

West
Spurs (3) vs. Jazz (4): I think it says in the NBA rulebook that a team that missed the playoffs last year cannot go to the NBA Finals the next year. So the Jazz have the playoff learning curve to overcome here. They've been a lot of fun to watch, and I'll be rooting for them hard, but they're not getting by the grind it out and knock 'em down Spurs.
Spurs in 6. Wait til next year!

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What a brutal first round, where I went a humbling 4-4. What is this, the NHL playoffs? Not only do my Mavs fail to show up, but the Shaqster goes out in a sweep. I'm not sure what I was thinking picking Toronto, but the truth be told, I was rooting for the Jazz to knock off Houston. Oh well, on to round 2.

East
Pistons (1) vs. Bulls (5): While the Bulls surprised me in the first round, they played a banged up Heat squad that was the perfect opponent for them. Now they have to play the varsity, and I like they're gonna get thumped.
Pistons in 5. Okay, 6.

Cavaliers (2) vs. Nets (6): The Cavs had a free ride in the first round over the really beat up Wizards. There's something still missing with Cleveland, and the Nets have the veteran grizzle that I overlooked against the Raptors. Lebron is better than Bosh, but there's not much else there that should present a problem. I think New Jersey will get the job done here.
Nets in 6. Not exactly.

West
Suns (2) vs. Spurs (3): This is the only series that was anticipated before round 1. It should be a classic matchup of speed and offense versus pound it in and defense. I think the home court advantage makes the difference here.
Suns in 7. Ripped off!

Jazz (4) vs. Warriors (8): It is amazing that a 4 vs. 8 should set up the most intriguing matchup of the second round. After the Dallas flameout, everyone is acting like this Warrior team can't be beaten. But Utah has a lot more grit than the very soft Mavericks. Repeat after me: Carlos Boozer is not Dirk Nowitzki. And there's no way Golden State continues to shoot lights out from the arc. (Note: Mike W says the Warriors win this in 3, with David Stern calling off game 4 for the good of the league.) But I say the clock strikes midnight for Cinderella.
Jazz in 5. Yes sir!

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We're back for another exciting season of NBA playoff basketball! Here are my picks for the first round:

East
Pistons (1) vs. Magic (8): There isn't much to say here, except perhaps that Detroit is not as good as last year without Ben Wallace. The Magic are young and feisty, but they're no match for the veteran boys from Motown.
Pistons in 4. Exactly correct!

Cavaliers (2) vs. Wizards (7): This would have been an extremely entertaining series, setting up a rematch from last year with Lebron vs. the Hibachi. Alas, with injuries severely depleting the Wizards, there isn't much left to entertain. This is a mopping up operation for Cleveland. I'll give the Wiz one game for grit.
Cavaliers in 5. No mercy in 4.

Raptors (3) vs. Nets (6): A couple of years ago, Vince Carter pretty much forced a trade out of Toronto. Now, the sneaker is on the other foot. It's the Nets who are banged up and the underdogs facing division champion Toronto. Although playing a little better lately, New Jersey never really clicked all season long. This should be a hard fought series, with the more talented youngsters pushing hard against a grizzled Nets team. In the end, I'll bet on the most talented player on the court: Chris Bosh.
Raptors in 7. Not sure what I was thinking.

Heat (4) vs. Bulls (5): Here's another great rematch from last year. While the Bulls have added Ben Wallace, the creaky Heat are hoping Dwyane Wade can shake off the rust and the aches to lead them back to the promised land. I thought the Ben Wallace acquisition would have moved Chicago to elite status, but it hasn't exactly worked out that way. They are very inconsistent, and as long as Shaq is still patrolling the paint, I'll take the . . .
Heat in 6. Dreadful effort.

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West
Mavericks (1) vs. Warriors (8): Here is yet another homecoming style matchup, with Don "Nellie" Nelson coming back to take on former pupil Avery Johnson and the top team in the league, the Dallas Mavericks. It is nice to see Golden State back in the playoffs after a long drought, and I love their up-tempo, helter skelter style of play. The Warriors swept the season series, and Nellie will give Dirk Nowitzki fits. In the end the better team will prevail, but it won't be a walkover like last year's opening round.
Mavericks in 6. This was hard to take.

Suns (2) vs. Lakers (7): We have a rivalry brewing here. I can't wait to see Raja Bell get in Kobe's grill again. For some reason, the Lakers struggled down the stretch. The Suns have too many weapons and they're on a mission to go farther than last year. But this still should be a war.
Suns in 6. Even sweeter in 5.

Spurs (3) vs. Nuggets (6): Boy, I don't like this Denver team. I know they've been on a roll the last few weeks, but in crunch time, look for Iverson and Melo to fight for the ball — among themselves! And with nitwit Joey Crawford safely out of the way this postseason, I look for Tim Duncan to have his best playoffs ever. The Spurs look like a real wrecking crew.
Spurs in 4. A few nervous moments early.

Jazz (4) vs. Rockets (5): A month ago, I would have picked the upstart Jazz to knock off a Houston team with both Yao and McGrady coming back from injuries. But Utah has slipped and the Rockets surpassed them in won-loss record to secure home court advantage in the weird NBA playoff format. Sloan and Van Gundy are both hall of fame coaches, and Boozer and company have a lot of pride. I think this one will go the distance, with McGrady finally getting out of the first round.
Rockets in 7. Okay, go Jazz!

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— The Commissioner