Inside the Paint

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Predictions for the 2006 Playoffs

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We ended up at 11-4, a great run with a disasterous finish. Oh well, wait til next year!

A great conference finals round puts us at 11-3 and poised for the Finals. Here we go!

The Finals
Mavericks (W4) vs. Heat (E2): Man, this is gonna be fun. We have my favorite two teams matched up against each other. They each eliminated last year's finalists. They each have lots of talent: Nobody on Dallas can stop Shaq or Wade. Nobody on Miami can stop Dirk and the run and slash game of Terry and Howard. Coach Pat Riley is the seasoned veteran against a very poised newbie in the coaching ranks: Avery Johnson.

In analyzing the last round, I'm not sure if Miami is this good or Detroit was exposed. I'm leaning toward Detroit was exposed, especially with the extreme effort they had to make just to get past upstart Cleveland. In the West, Dallas basically imposed their will on a game — but undermanned and exhausted — Phoenix team. And this was after knocking off the champion Spurs in the previous round, in an overtime game 7. Dallas still looks fresh, and they have the home court advantage. The Heat have some creaky old knees and backs. I'm all Mav'ed up! Let's make this:
Mavericks in 6. Stolen!

We almost swept Round 2, but everyone knows that "almost" doesn't count in NBA basketball. Oh well, at least the dreadfully boring Spurs are out! We're 9-3 and on to Round 3, the Conference Finals:

East
Pistons (1) vs. Heat (2): Nothing new here. This is the matchup that was expected way back on opening day. And this series won't disappoint. The Pistons looked wobbly in the last round, but they were up against a lot of hype and the whole country rooting against them (not to mention Rasheed's sore ankle and big mouth!). And Miami has been waiting all year to avenge their meltdown in game 7 last year. This year they have a better supporting cast tailor made for the big games. Expect Walker and my boy Gary "The Glove" Payton to step up here. These guys want rings, and in the case of GP, he's running out of time.
Heat in 6. Yes!

West
Suns (2) vs. Mavericks (4): This should be a wildly entertaining series, featuring a rematch from last year with lots of new players. But of course this is all about buddies Nash vs. Nowitzki, and we will hear about this at least twice every quarter of every game. Phoenix has been pushed to game sevens twice by underdog L.A. teams, but Dallas won't be so forgiving. Dallas is the favorite. They're almost as quick as the Suns, and their inside game is just as unstoppable as the Clips' inside game (with apologies to Elton Brand, who could be the best player in the West). An entertaining series? Yes. A long one? No.
Mavericks in 5. One game off.

Round 1 is over, where I went 6-2. It was exciting — and a bit of a killer. Out West, I was exhausted watching the ups and downs in the breathtaking Suns-Lakers series. My boys in Sacramento lost two games and the series to the Spurs because of Ron Artest body parts — his elbow in game 1 (leading to his suspension for game 2) and his twisted ankle in the decisive game 6. Over in the East, our Wiz wuz robbed in plain view of millions in both games 3 and 6 vs. the Cavs. In game 3, Lebron took four — count 'em, four — steps to make the winning basket in the closing seconds. I thought three was the maximum allowed for superstars! In game 6, Gilbert Arenas was denied a basket on a clear goaltending, where the defender's arm went through the net and out the top, shaking the backboard and causing him to "miss" the winning shot. I know, it's sour grapes. Well, on to Round 2!

East
Pistons (1) vs. Cavaliers (4): This is Lebron's final exam for the school year. The Pistons won't have much trouble collapsing around Lebron and daring Marshall, Gooden (or Snow!) to beat them from the perimeter. Good luck with that. I'll give Cleveland 2 wins — one because Lebron is a superstar, and one because Detroit gets to take one game off each round, like they did vs. the Bucks.
Pistons in 6. Pushed to the brink with 7 games!

Heat (2) vs. Nets (3): These teams have both been posturing like they're the official challenger to the Pistons in the East. But against mediocre opponents in Round 1, both were exposed as also rans. If J Kidd can't handle Anthony Johnson, what are his prospects here against Wade, White Chocolate, and The Glove? Mix in Half-Amazing going into one of his crazy 10 for 35 games, and I don't like the underdog Nets even a little bit. But the creaky Heat will struggle anyway.
Heat in 7. This was way too easy in 5.

West
Spurs (1) vs. Mavericks (4): Now we have some serious basketball here! If I didn't like the Spurs in Round 1, I definitely don't like them in Round 2 against a very talented Dallas team. I expect the Mavs to steal one game in San Antonio, hold serve at home, and wrap this thing up!
Mavericks in 6. Lost one game due to a questionable suspension, so it took 7.

Suns (2) vs. Clippers (6): The Suns really struggled against Laker big bodies Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom. Now they meet up with even bigger and more talented big bodies: Chris Kaman and Elton Brand, who are both having their finest seasons. Nash isn't going to waltz down the lane like he did against the Lakers. Sam I Am is a killer in the playoffs. The Suns shot all their bullets in Round 1.
Clippers in 6. So close I could taste it.

We're back for another exciting season of NBA playoff basketball! Here are my picks for the first round:

East
Pistons (1) vs. Bucks (8): There isn't much to say here. Detroit was the best team in the league, and Milwaukee struggled down the stretch, falling to the 8th seed, the spot to be avoided at all costs. This will be pretty much a "deer in headlights" of the oncoming train.
Pistons in 4. Okay, they took off game 3.

Heat (2) vs. Bulls (7): I've been a fan of the Heat for years, and have especially liked them since they acquired Shaq. But they're a weird team this year and the pieces don't fit together so well. Chicago has been on a bit of an upswing as they fought their way into the playoffs in the closing weeks. They've got some young, energetic players like Hinrich, Deng, Nocioni, and of course Ben Gordon. I think the Bulls will give the Heat a scare, but in the end it will be:
Heat in 6. Exactly!

Nets (3) vs. Pacers (6): The Nets look as good now as they did when they went to the finals two years in a row. Carter and Jefferson played together for a full year, Krstic has come on in the last few months, and Jason Kidd is the maestro in the backcourt. Indiana lost Reggie Miller to retirement and Ron Artest to insanity, but they still have Jermaine O'Neal. This is a dangerous round for the favorite, but New Jersey should prevail.
Nets in 5. A real stuggle.

Cavaliers (4) vs. Wizards (5): I've been promoting Lebron James all year, and I think he's the MVP. He finally took the Cavs to the playoffs, and they didn't sneak in; they're the fourth seed. But this Wizard team has the eye of the tiger, with a solid core fueled by Gilbert Arenas, who had his best year yet as a pro. And remember: this squad got their playoff initiation last year, winning round 1 and then losing to the Heat. I have to call for the upset here.
Wizards in 6. Robbed! This was very hard to take.

West
Spurs (1) vs. Kings (8): I know everyone has practically anointed this San Antonio team to get back to the finals and play Detroit again for the championship. But not so fast! Ginobili has been a shadow of himself due to injuries, and Tim Duncan faded dramatically this year. While Tony Parker has improved, he will have his hands full with proven playoff performer Mike Bibby. Brad Miller is a very capable center. Sacramento has better role players in Kenny Thomas and Abdur-Rahim. And they have the X-factor: a determined and motivated Ron Artest. Champs aren't dethroned without a fight — and I expect this to be an all-out war. The champ is going down in the first round!
Kings in 6. Oh man, this was so close.

Suns (2) vs. Lakers (7): Oh, man this is a scary series for Steve Nash and the gang. Kobe is a one man wrecking crew, and I can finally say Phil Jackson has proven to me that he's a great coach. But in the end I think the running game of Phoenix will wear down a Lakers' team that lacks depth on the bench.
Suns in 6. A struggle to win this in 7.

Nuggets (3) vs. Clippers (6): There are three crazy playoff developments that Commissioner Stern must address in the offseason. The first is how can the 6th seed have home court advantage over the 3rd seed? What does seeding mean? The divisional alignment is a joke when it's basically a balanced schedule, at least within the conference. Anyway, both of these teams are fairly inexperienced in the playoffs. Both have horses (Brand for the Clips and Melo for the Nuggets). Both have excellent centers (Kaman and Camby). But Los Angeles has the guy who will rip an opponent's heart out: Sam I Am Cassell. So that means it will be:
Clippers in 7. Much easier than expected!

Mavericks (4) vs. Grizzlies (5): The other two crazy playoff developments are in this matchup. Everyone has pointed out how unfair it is that 4th seeded Dallas will have to play the Spurs in the 2nd round (if they win here), even though they have the conference's 2nd best record. But here's what is even more outrageous, and I haven't seen anyone talk about it: Memphis has the conference's 4th best record, and yet they have to play the team with the 2nd best record in the 1st round! Incredible. And another early exit for the very much improved Grizz.
Mavericks in 5. Okay, I'll take the sweep!