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Predictions for the 2005 Playoffs
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Another
year of middle of the pack playoff predictions, finishing at
10-5.
The conference
finals couldn't have been worse! It was over early out west,
and our heroes in Miami gave it their all before succumbing
to injuries and tight shoes in the 4th quarter of game 7. That
puts us in last place at 9-5. Oh well, we push on to the finals.
Why would anyone care who I like at this point? But it's my
website, and I'm gonna keep making picks!
The
Finals
Spurs (W-2) vs. Pistons (E-2): I'm not crazy about either
of these teams. Sure they play great defense, and were the two
odds on favorites to make it to the finals when the season began.
Still, I would prefer to see games in the 90s, or even the 80s!
I don't even dare mention getting over the century mark. These
games are gonna be slow it down, grab and hold, with lots of
brutal shots as the shot clock expires. But I like San Antonio
here with a fairly easy series win for two reasons: They have
home court advantage, and they have — by far — the
best player on the court. History shows that Tim Duncan only
chokes it up vs. the Lakers (or Shaq). Neither is facing him
here.
Spurs in 5. Okay, winning ugly in 7.
We got killed
in round 2, getting burnt on both our upset picks. Reggie didn't
have enough help in Indy (where was Jermaine?) and Dirk having
just a horrible playoff run in Big D. So at 9-3, we limp into
the conference finals:
East
Heat (1) vs. Pistons (2): There's a lot of talk about
Shaq not being 100%. If he's not close to healthy, Miami could
be in for a rough road here. But I think the Diesel has enough
in the tank. Remember, the Heat haven't even lost a game yet,
while Detroit has looked beatable by the lowly Sixers (losing
one and almost two) and the banged up Pacers. I expect the Jones'
boys and Miami's role players to be a tad worse than Sheed,
Prince, and Hamilton, while Shaq and Wade dominate at the 1
and 5 spots. In fact, this will be Wade's coming out party.
Heat in 6. Oh the agony! The pain!
West
Suns (1) vs. Spurs (2): This will be the series that
ends the argument, at least for this year, about whether you
can win in the playoffs with offense, or does it start and end
with defense. The Suns shocked my Mavs, with Nash circling around
the lane like a whirligig. And who has an answer to Stoudemire?
Meanwhile, the Spurs still look like they're sleepwalking through
the playoffs, being pushed hard in 6 games by the undermanned
Sonics (who were missing two of their top three scorers). If
Duncan doesn't step up here, the Spurs could go quickly. I expect
he'll play better, so I'll take the:
Suns in 7. Repeat after me: Defense
wins in the playoffs.
We went
a smart 7-1 in the first round, losing only with the Sacramento
Kings. The second round is our next test:
East
Heat (1) vs. Wizards (5): There isn't much to say here.
If the Nets couldn't put up much of a fight, the young and inexperienced
Wizards aren't going to be close in the 4th quarter of any game.
Call it a sweep.
Heat in 4. Still unbeaten!
Pistons
(2) vs. Pacers (6): Without Ron Artest, you would think
that the Pacers have no shot against the defending champs. But
Indiana has found a way to get it done all year, even winning
in the Palace. This is gonna be a grind it out series, and the
Pacers are primed after their first round 7 game test. I'm calling
for the upset!
Pacers in 6. This really hurt.
West
Suns (1) vs. Mavericks (4): Conventional wisdom says
that the fast paced Suns can't win in the defensive oriented
playoffs. But here Phoenix gets their dream matchup, the lightly
regarded defense of the Mavericks. But there are two sides to
this coin. The Mavs had a hard time against the Van Gundy style
defense of the Rockets, Nowitzki played poorly, Dallas lost
the first two games at home, AND THEY STILL WON. The Mavs are
tougher than they're given credit, and they like playing the
up and down the court game too, and their bench is deeper than
the Phoenix bench. This could be Mark Cuban's year.
Mavericks in 5. Not exactly.
Spurs
(2) vs. Sonics (3): There is no way the Sonics can match
up with the Spurs. Just no way. After a first game sleep walk,
San Antonio has awakened and fairly thumped the red hot Nuggets.
I don't see anything to stop them here.
Spurs in 6. Correct!
We're back
for another exciting season of NBA playoff basketball!
Here are
my picks for the first round:
East
Heat (1) vs. Nets (8): The Heat
have been my team all year. With the rapidly improving Dwyane
Wade running the point, and with Shaquille
O'Neal patrolling the paint, what's not to like? And now
they're running smack dab into one of the hottest teams in the
East, the rejuvenated New
Jersey Nets — my team of the last three years! Shaq's
a little banged up, and RJ
may be back to help NJ. Wow, this is gonna be fun! I give the
Nets a puncher's chance, but there's still no antidote to the
big fella.
Heat in 6. Too Easy!
Pistons
(2) vs. Sixers (7): When Larry
Brown left the Sixers
two years ago, basically it was time to go. We admired the job
he had done, but he had hit the ceiling. But when he got to
Detroit,
he disrespected the Philly fan, claiming he didn't know who
was in charge of the Sixers. Hey Larry, I'll give you a hint:
His initials are LB. I'd love to see the Sixers win this thing,
but they have the same old problem — too much Iverson
for the team's own good.
Pistons in 5. Exactly!
Celtics
(3) vs. Pacers (6): This is the last go round for one of
my all-time favorites — Reggie
Miller. He's a little long in the tooth, but he still brings
it in the playoffs. The Pacers
are up against a somewhat soft Celtics'
team, but with another one of my veteran guys (Gary
Payton) running the show, who knows? Still, I think Indiana
has more weapons, and probably the coach of the year in Rick
Carlisle.
Pacers in 6. A tremendous 7 game series.
Bulls
(4) vs. Wizards (5): Here are two up and coming teams with
loads of young talent. The only problem is, Chicago
has to play without their best player, Eddy
Curry. That should be enough to give the edge to the Wizards.
Wizards in 6. Exactly!
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West
Suns (1) vs. Grizzlies (8): Would-be MVP Steve
Nash brings his high flying Phoenix
Suns into the playoffs with the top record in the league.
While Memphis
has been productive under Coach
Fratello, they've slumped down the stretch and might be
running out of gas. They'll need a full tank if they're going
to stop the Suns.
Suns in 7. Memphis mutiny made this
a sweep.
Spurs
(2) vs. Nuggets (7): Conventional wisdom says the Spurs
are the team to beat, because they have the best player in the
conference, Tim
Duncan. But Duncan is banged up, and the Nuggets
have been burning up the league since the All-Star break. Lots
of young, high energy guys are the keys to success in the NBA.
Just not in this series.
Spurs in 6. Lookin' tough.
Sonics
(3) vs. Kings (6): The Sonics
started the season like a house on fire, but have struggled
down the stretch, with injuries to Rashard
Lewis and Vladimir
Radmanovic. Not to be outdone, the Kings
traded away Chris
Webber because Brad
Miller was playing so well in the low box, and he went down
almost immediately. But Miller and Bobby
Jackson are supposedly activated for the playoffs. Throw
in the guys from Philly in the Webber trade, and that should
be enough to get by the first round.
Kings in 6. Ouch!
Mavericks
(4) vs. Rockets (5): Dirk
Nowitzki and company have a message for the rest of the
league: These are not your father's Mavericks
— or even last year's Mavericks! They lost Nash and haven't
missed a beat. And this year, they play defense. Their versatile
attack will overwhelm the Rockets'
two man show of Yao
and McGrady.
Remember, McGrady has never won a playoff series. It's not about
to start here.
Mavericks in 5. Losing early but going
the distance.
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